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Number of candidates’ Facebook fans

Several of them probably represent your view of what you’d like Calgary to be. But how do you decide who has a serious chance at winning – and should get your vote – and to which candidate would your vote be a throw-away?

Polls are one way to find out what other Calgarians are thinking. I don’t know about you, but I’ve never been asked to participate in a poll. (I don’t have a home phone, so my opinion is automatically ineligible.) Plus, in these polls you can only pick one candidate, so we can’t really tell who else you are considering.

The good news is we have a freely accessible tool that represents the average Calgarian perfectly: Facebook.

The site’s demographics are almost exactly the same as Calgary’s. (Yes, people over the age of 45 do use the networking site, making up about 35 per cent of its users, while 34.4 per cent of Calgarians fall into this demographic.)

On Facebook you can tell who is considering multiple candidates — they are a “fan” of several. You can also tell who doesn’t care — they haven’t joined any candidate’s page. It takes everyone into account. More importantly, you can gauge each campaign’s momentum.

On Facebook it’s clear that Ric McIver is in the lead, and has been for some time. However, what is also clear is that his support has flatlined.

Naheed Nenshi and Barb Higgins, meanwhile, are gaining a following at a rate no other candidate has come close to sustaining. But will either of them have enough time to overtake McIver’s lead before election day? If the current trend continues, the answer for Nenshi is “yes,” and the answer for Higgins is “no.” Things can change over the next 45 days, however so I wouldn’t count either out.

It is also surprising that there is a very clear fourth candidate in this race. Kent Hehr is plodding along at a growth rate similar to the candidates below him, but he has almost double the “fans.”

However, he’s got a long way to go to catch up with the Big 3.

Everyone else has some soul-searching to do. If you can’t even drum up support on Facebook, I’m not confident you’ll be able to bring citizens together after you’re elected.

Original: http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/local/article/622474–writing-s-on-the-facebook-wall

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Number of candidates’ Facebook fans

We now stand at 17 mayoral candidates. Obviously only one of them will be our next mayor.

Several of them probably represent your view of what you’d like Calgary to be. But how do you decide who has a serious chance at winning – and should get your vote – and to which candidate would your vote be a throw-away?

Polls are one way to find out what other Calgarians are thinking. I don’t know about you, but I’ve never been asked to participate in a poll. (I don’t have a home phone, so my opinion is automatically ineligible.) Plus, in these polls you can only pick one candidate, so we can’t really tell who else you are considering.

The good news is we have a freely accessible tool that represents the average Calgarian perfectly: Facebook.

The site’s demographics are almost exactly the same as Calgary’s. (Yes, people over the age of 45 do use the networking site, making up about 35 per cent of its users, while 34.4 per cent of Calgarians fall into this demographic.)

On Facebook you can tell who is considering multiple candidates — they are a “fan” of several. You can also tell who doesn’t care — they haven’t joined any candidate’s page. It takes everyone into account. More importantly, you can gauge each campaign’s momentum.

On Facebook it’s clear that Ric McIver is in the lead, and has been for some time. However, what is also clear is that his support has flatlined.

Naheed Nenshi and Barb Higgins, meanwhile, are gaining a following at a rate no other candidate has come close to sustaining. But will either of them have enough time to overtake McIver’s lead before election day? If the current trend continues, the answer for Nenshi is “yes,” and the answer for Higgins is “no.” Things can change over the next 45 days, however so I wouldn’t count either out.

It is also surprising that there is a very clear fourth candidate in this race. Kent Hehr is plodding along at a growth rate similar to the candidates below him, but he has almost double the “fans.”

However, he’s got a long way to go to catch up with the Big 3.

Everyone else has some soul-searching to do. If you can’t even drum up support on Facebook, I’m not confident you’ll be able to bring citizens together after you’re elected.

Original: http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/local/article/622474–writing-s-on-the-facebook-wall

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How many of the 2010 mayoral candidates have you met so far?

You’re in the majority if you said none.

Rest assured, candidates are trying their best to fix that. At least, a few are.

With the summer festival season ending this weekend, the biggest opportunity for candidates to meet you is officially ending, too.

Kent Hehr (with his balloons for the kids) and Naheed Nenshi (with his bright purple signs and t-shirts) were likely the busiest during the season, attending all the major festivals. Wayne Stewart’s volunteers were out in full force handing out brochures, while Bob Hawkesworth was out at some festivals doing the same.

Barb Higgins, Paul Hughes and Ric McIver weren’t big into having a booth and instead chose to fly under the radar by walking the street talking to people they bumped into. (McIver did have a booth at Kensington’s Sun and Salsa, but packed up and left early.)

Craig Burrows chose a different tactic with his “100 communities in 100 days” RV. Many know him only from seeing that big blue and yellow camper.

But those heady days of summer are behind us. Candidates have had their moment in the sun — literally. If they haven’t got a full head of steam by now, it will be a struggle to win the race.

They’ll still try to get your attention by attending events, mostly forums and debates. But this format doesn’t provide much time for one-on-one interaction.

They’ll spend money on impersonal computerized phone calls. They’ll spend time slowly going door-to-door in your neighbourhood or having volunteers make equally time-consuming personal calls. They’ll figure out that Twitter and Facebook really are good places to have conversations with Calgarians.

But most of all, they’ll realize the best opportunities to meet us face to face are gone. And they’ll have to wrestle with whether they have proven they know how to listen to Calgarians when it’s most convenient.

Original: http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/local/article/613438–sun-setting-on-face-to-face-time

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Are you sick of hearing about Ric McIver and Barb Higgins yet? This week, I did a few media interviews on the candidates’ use of social media.

Following one interview, the cameraman wanted to get images of the different websites they were using. I started by showing him some of the sites that I thought were done well. He then asked to see more from McIver and Higgins.

I took him to McIver’s Flickr page. It hadn’t been updated in over a year. I took him to Higgins’s Twitter feed. Not one conversation. These were bad examples, but it’s what he wanted footage of.

I was disappointed he didn’t want to see more from those who were doing it well. Instead he and I had fallen into the two-candidate trap.

So far there are 13 candidates running for mayor, and another 56 running for alderman.

It’s hard to get to know that many people well enough to be able to decide who you trust the most to ensure you have the services from the City you want, at a price you can afford.
And so the two-candidate trap was created.

It’s much easier to only focus on two options. This or that. The American system has been perfected in this manner. Republican or Democrat, those are your only real options.

The problem is, the two-candidate trap is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once the two main options are selected, all others suffer.

But why were McIver and Higgins the two selected to be talked about? The answer is simple: name recognition.

Admit it, when Barb Higgins entered the race you immediate said to yourself, “I know who she is. I think she’d be a lovely/terrible mayor.”

Did you have the same thought when Wayne Stewart entered the race? I’m guessing no, simply because you didn’t know who he was.

But this is not high school. We shouldn’t be selecting our leadership based on popularity.

Calgarians are smart enough to pick a Council based on their ideas for Calgary.

I challenge you, the next time a conversation about the election pops up at the office or the dining room table, to not just talk about the candidates you already know, but to chat about Craig Burrows or Kent Hehr or Naheed Nenshi or Bob Hawkesworth. What makes them better (or worse) than the big two?

Yes, you’re going to have to go learn something about them first.

I also challenge the media to give us the chance to learn about those candidates by not taking the lazy way out and falling into the two-candidate trap.

We’re adults. We can handle more than two options.

Original article: http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/local/article/607813–broaden-your-voting-horizons

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In today’s issue of Metro Calgary I was quoted for an article about Calgary municipal election candidates’ use of social media. The questions asked of me were simple enough: who’s doing it well, etc.

However there was a second interviewee for the same article. Bruce Foster, identified as chair of the department of policy studies at Mount Royal University, indicated he was not convinced in the power of social media during an election. The article quotes:

“While (social media) is important, you’re also targeting the segment of the voting population that traditionally has the lowest (voter) turnout,” said Foster, adding many people who use social media fall into the 18- to 35-year-old age group.

I responded to this statement in the comments section, but I wanted to expand upon it here. (And fix the spelling errors a bit too.)

I realize that Mr. Foster’s comments are probably not the entirety of what he gave – just as mine are not – but I did want to point out two potential inaccuracies in what he is quoted as saying.

First off, it is an all too often sprung trap to say that social media is used exclusively or even in majority by 18-34 year olds because this is factually inaccurate. A simple online search will show you that 18-34 year olds make up about only 25-30% of social media users.

The image above comes from a detailed analysis that Pingdom did of social media user demographics in February 2010.

As part of that study it became clear that it was impossible to generalize as Mr. Foster is attempting to do. The breakdown of age demographics varies wildly depending on the social media service you are discussing. For example, the chart below shows that Bebo (a site that to the best of my knowledge no candidates are an active member of) has a about 62% of it’s users under the age of 35. While on the other end of the spectrum you can see that LinkedIn, an online resume and networking site (which I know several candidates are active users of) has about 22% of its user being under the age of 35.

To give more than one source I would also point readers toward The Heavy Chef Project, whose tagline is “demystifying digital marketing”. They point to recent findings by the Nielsen Company (yes THAT Nielsen) on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn demographics, which align with the numbers above.

It is possible to find numbers which have a higher than average 18-35 year old participation in social media (when compared to the population as a whole demographics) but in almost all of those cases the stats tend to be a year or two or more old. Certainly it is fair to say that 18-34 year olds often are the early adopters, but once a social media has gone mainstream – as Facebook, YouTube, Flickr and Twitter have done – it is by definition going to be reflective of the population as a whole.

If we ignore the fact the first half of Mr. Foster’s statement is false, we have to deal with the second assumption Mr. Foster makes in the Metro article, that we, as a society, have done everything in our power to engage 18 to 34 year olds and therefore it isn’t worth our time to bother trying to engage them further. This is obviously not true.

The basic marketing question goes: do we spend our money on the group buying lots of product from us (who we obviously are reaching) or on the group not buying our product (who we obviously are not reaching). If you have one dollar to spend on marketing you have to choose. In the case of elections, we don’t have to.

The younger demographic has proven they are hyper-engaged within their communities – their Facebook and Twitter activity alone providing chief example. Assuming they don’t want to be part of community engagement is the lazy answer.

Instead, we should start by flipping the question on its head by asking how should we be engaging them?

When we see a block of voters trend so differently than the norm, we must ask ourselves are they not voting because they don’t want to? Or are they not voting because we haven’t done a good job of engaging them? I think in this case, it is the latter.

If the amount of information flowing through Facebook is any indication, one multiple choice question every 4 years is hardly the kind of engagement voters of this generation find beneficial. They obviously want more, and can handle more. Tools that don’t offer the kind of ongoing engagement they want aren’t worth their time. They (we?) are a generation that craves results. Cause and effect is what drives much of our day to day lives. People like to see input create output. This is the rationale behind many of the generational shifts we have seen over the last few decades. It is, for example, what points to younger workers willing to be more transient and less loyal to one corporation; it is also what’s partially at play in the decrease of participation in organized religion in North America.

It is very easy to understand how a voter could say “my vote doesn’t matter anyway so why bother voting” when viewed through the lens of expectations. Especially when compared to the exceptions we see in our day-to-day activities.

In short, times have changed and our style of democracy hasn’t. Access to our governmental system remains virtually the same today as it was in 1867 – the first year of Confederation. Input designed for improvement is still relegated to one vote per person every few years. This is despite the fact that we have greatly sped up the ability to transfer information from person to person to organization. In 1867 the only option to send a copy of something important from Vancouver to Ottawa was to send a messenger via horseback. The journey took weeks. Now I can just attach it to an email and you will have it in seconds.

That is a fundamental shift in expectation from the general public. One our system of government has had major trouble keeping up with.

I agree it is easy to ignore root causes and simply say “18 to 34 year olds aren’t engaged so we shouldn’t even try” as Mr. Foster suggests in his comment. But even a slightly deeper look shows us that we are hardly even trying to engage them.

So should candidates do as Mr. Foster suggests and ignore the 18 – 34 demographic? Or do they follow the lead of David Plouffe, Joe Rospars and Chris Hughes (Obama for America) and create value that encourages a voter to engage in the way they want to?

It is not a question of how engaged a group of voters are, but instead a question of the value that group sees. Social media is the perfect tool to gauge this because social media is all about value. If you have it, you are embraced, if you don’t, you are ignored. And that is the what voting is all about too.

As a result, I think social media is the perfect tool to reach a group of potential voters in a way that speaks to them. If that isn’t a great reason to use social media as part of an election toolkit, I don’t know what is.

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